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Should you ever foul at the buzzer? - Learning Statistics with Basketball

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Here's what you need to know

It's the 2005 Conference-USA Tournament game between the Memphis Tigers and the Louisville Cardinals. With Memphis down by two, Darius Washington Jr. is fouled at the buzzer and heads to the foul line.

What you need to know:
Darius Washington was fouled while attempting a 3-point shot, therefore he gets to take three shots from the foul line. Each foul shot is worth one point. Since the game clock has run down, these will be the last scoring opportunities of the game (unless he ties the score, and it goes into overtime).

It is important that you understand that Memphis (Washington's team) is down by two points. He would have to make all three shots to win the game for his team. If he makes two and misses one, the game will be tied and head into overtime. If he misses two shots or more, Memphis will lose.

For this card, answer the following questions:

• How many shots will Washington get? How many points is each one worth? 
• What are the different ways this game could end? 
• What do you think is the most likely outcome and why? 
• What additional information would help you predict the outcome?