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Should you ever foul at the buzzer? - Learning Statistics with Basketball

  • Stefy
July 06, 2016 - July 31, 2016
In the 2005 Conference-USA Tournament game, Memphis player Darius Washington Jr. was fouled at the buzzer during a three-point shot. With his team down by two to Louisville, he stepped up to the foul line for three shots.

Daryus Washington

In this project, you compute the possibilities of a win, loss, or tie for Memphis. You will also determine whether or not it was smart for Louisville to foul at the buzzer, and will investigate the conditions when fouling at the buzzer in a close game makes sense. 


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Before beginning...

Let's get familiar with some basketball rules!

Act One: The offense perspective

The announcer tells us that Washington has a 72% free throw percentage

Watch the first shot!

What is the new probability that Memphis will win? Lose? Go into overtime?

Watch the second shot!

What is the new probability that Memphis will win? Lose? Go into overtime? 

Act Two: The defense perspective

Was fouling Washington at the buzzer a smart move?

Assuming the game goes into overtime...

Let’s assume that each team has an equal chance of winning

Wait a minute...? So who won in the end?

Find out yourself, pals ;) 
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