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Should you ever foul at the buzzer? - Learning Statistics with Basketball

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Estimate the probabilities that the defense will win, lose, or go into overtime.

During the season, Darius shot 72% from the foul line and made 40% of his three-point attempts.

Imagine you’re a Louisville player, trying to decide whether or not to foul Darius as he attempts his 3-point shot. For each scenario – foul or no foul – find the probability that the defense will win, lose, or go into overtime.
Estimate the probabilities